Why Taiwan sent US-trained Marines to defend uninhabited islands

As the Marines departed for the Pratas Islands, the region around them was becoming increasingly tense.

In the crystal blue waters sparkling underneath the Pacific sun, naval ships belonging to China, the US, Japan, and Australia conducted exercises to increase readiness and show off their countries’ military might. Above head, aircraft buzzed through the clear blue sky in a similar set of drills and missions.

Far away on the diplomatic stage, China and the US traded tit-for-tat verbal jabs, economic punishments, consulate closures, and other punitive actions over an array of ever diverging disagreements.

All around, it seemed, tensions were mounting.

What happened, and why?

In late July, US-trained Taiwanese Marines departed for the Pratas Islands - a set of coral reefs, banks, and one island a few hundred miles away from China and Taiwan. The news, reported by the South China Morning Post, followed other reports of a similar deployment in June. That deployment was reported to be for a training mission. It is unclear if the most recent deployment reported by SCMP was a follow on to the one in June or a troop rotation.

(The Pratas/Dongsha Islands are located 275 miles from Taiwan’s southern port city of Kaohsiung and some 190 miles from China. Source: Google Maps.)

(Taiwan's military outpost in the Pratas/Dongsha Islands. Source: Google Maps.)

In either case, the troop deployment appeared to be in response to reports that China was planning an exercise to simulate the seizure of the Pratas, which China calls the Dongsha Islands. The area is uninhabited, except for the Taiwanese coast guard detachment stationed there. The Pratas/Dongsha Islands are significant for their geographic location. If captured by China, they would allow its military better access to the Pacific Ocean.

It is unclear whether the Chinese exercise cited as the reason for the marine reinforcement will actually take place. The original article about the exercise, reported by Kyodo News in May, leads to a 404 page not found error message. Chinese media did not confirm the exercise, but it did quote experts who said that the military could shift the alleged exercise into an actual operation to seize the islands if Taiwan moved forward with any efforts to formalize independence.

Last week, Kyodo News published another article about the supposed exercise, citing a professor at a Chinese military university who wrote about it in a Hong Kong magazine. The professor did not disclose an exact date or location, but Kyodo News in May reported that the exercise would be held at Hainan island along China’s southern coast. The professor, Li Daguang, later walked back his report, saying he had cited Kyodo News’ article from May.

True or not, Taiwan responded to the reports by sending 200 of its US-trained “Iron Force” Marines to augment the coast guard forces already stationed at the island.

Relations between China and Taiwan are complicated. Taiwan considers itself an independent state while China does not. Taiwan has its own democratic form of governance, its own military, trade relations, and even official diplomatic recognition from other countries. However, the Chinese government considers Taiwan to be part of mainland China. Beijing is determined to unify Taiwan and while it would prefer to achieve that aim through peaceful means, it has also repeatedly stated its willingness to use military force if necessary.

Complicating the matter further is Washington’s own relations with Beijing and Taipei. For years, the US did its best to walk a delicate line between appeasing China while supporting Taiwan. However, under the Trump administration, the US has significantly strengthened its ties with Taiwan as its relations with China have deteriorated. In the past year, the US has made multiple arms sales to Taiwan. Most recently, the State Department began the process of selling four high-tech drones to Taiwan that will significantly improve its ability to conduct surveillance missions.

The tentative deal comes on the head of the highest-level visit of a US official to Taiwan in over 40 years. Health Secretary Alex Azar is expected to visit Taiwan soon in order to strengthen health collaboration “to benefit the people of Taiwan, the people of America, and the people of the world”. In an interview with Fox News, Azar praised Taiwan for its “transparency” and success in dealing with the coronavirus.

China strongly opposed both the tentative drones sale and Azar’s forthcoming visit. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin warned that both would cause further harm to US-China relations and that Taiwan is “the most sensitive issue” to Beijing.

Despite these warnings, the US is unlikely to back down, although the drones deal will still need to be approved by Congress. While Taiwan may be China’s most sensitive issue, it is far from being the only problem dividing Washington and Beijing.

In addition to arguments over human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, unfair trade practices, espionage, and controversial territory claims, China and the US have also increased military operations and readiness in the Indo-Pacific.

According to a Beijing-based think tank, the US conducted 67 reconnaissance flights over the South China Sea in July, a number much greater than the previous two months. That comes amid dual carrier strike group operations in the sea last month, as well as an official declaration by the US rejecting China’s controversial territory claims in the area. The US also conducted naval exercises with India, Japan, and Australia last month.

China also appeared to have stepped up its exercises, readiness, and capabilities. Drills like mid-air refueling and night flying were highlighted by Chinese media, while amphibious assault vehicles were repositioned closer to Taiwan and a new kind of Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) vessel that will allow China to further project its military capabilities began sea trials. The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force also test fired two missiles capable of striking US military targets in Okinawa and Guam. Beginning Tuesday, China will also conduct live-fire drills off its eastern coast.

While US-China relations are worsening and some fear the possibility of the two powers accidentally stumbling into armed confrontation, both sides are taking steps to mitigate risks. In a phone call last Thursday night, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, discussed tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Esper expressed his concerns about China’s “destabilizing activity” in the region and called upon the country to adhere to international laws. Wei warned that “dangerous moves” by the US would raise tensions and called upon the US to stop “stigmatization” of China. Both sides also agreed on the need to keep lines of communication open for crisis prevention and management.

During a virtual Aspen Security Forum prior to the phone call, Esper downplayed the possibilities of military confrontation with China. “I don’t see China right now as an inevitable threat, that we are going to have a fight with them,” he said. “But we do have to compete.” Nonetheless, he also warned that China had become more aggressive during the COVID-19 pandemic.

While Esper may believe that armed conflict between the US and China is more of an unrealistic fear than an inevitable reality, Taiwan sees its future differently. A Chinese military invasion is at the top of Taiwan's concerns. Last month, Taiwan conducted its annual military exercise simulating a hostile invasion of the island. The exercise saw the usage of newly formed combined-arms battalions and notional missile attacks intended to test the military’s resilience. Taiwan’s efforts to purchase high-tech drones from the US follows the country's aim to improve its military in order to defend against and deter a Chinese invasion.

Taiwan will remain one of the most prominent flash points for a US-China conflict. Between Taiwan’s growing desire for official independence, China’s determination to achieve unification, and Washington’s increasing support for Taipei amid worsening relations with Beijing, the situation will only become more fragile. The deployment of 200 Marines to the Pratas/Dongsha Islands is just the latest example.