Superpower Showdown: The course of US-China competition becomes clear as differences are made bare

In Anchorage, Alaska, the future of US-China relations was set. High-level talks between US and Chinese officials from March 18-19 that Beijing initially framed as an opportunity to “reset” relations turned out to be an airing of grievances that found more differences than similarities. Claims by experts and politicians that the defining geopolitical challenge of the 21st century would be America’s competition with China appeared to manifest itself as both sides walked away with a clear eye assessment of their stark differences.

In recent years, China has come under greater US scrutiny for its actions at home and abroad. From its repression of Uyghurs and other minorities in its northwestern region of Xinjiang to its militarization of islands in the South China Sea, the US is increasingly concerned about what it perceives to be a rising autocratic China that threatens the rules-based international order that has ensured relative global peace and stability since WWII. Beijing asserts that its rise is peaceful and that the US has no right to interfere with matters deemed to be China’s internal affairs.

The US is not alone in its concerns. Countries like Japan, Australia, and India have also become increasingly worried about China’s behavior. Nothing has reflected this shared concern more clearly than the strengthening of those four nation’s Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - known colloquially as the Quad. On March 12, leaders of the Quad held a virtual summit in which they agreed to deepen cooperation to confront regional challenges, which in addition to COVID-19 and climate change also included China.

Unsurprisingly, China has pushed back against such moves. As competition deepens, the course of US-China relations becomes darker. The potential for both sides to resolve differences appeared to set in Anchorage. The likelihood of more intense competition now seems greater.

The Meeting

The talks at the Hotel Captain Cook in Anchorage were supposed to begin with a four-minute photo op. Instead, they were initiated by long-winded critiques that made bare the differences between the superpowers.

Leading the US delegation were National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who had just returned from meetings in Tokyo and Seoul with defense secretary Lloyd Austin and their Japanese and South Korean counterparts. Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the director of the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Yang Jiechi, headed the Chinese delegation.

Blinken framed the meeting as an opportunity for both sides to understand where each stands on issues ranging from human rights to trade and national sovereignty. The US, Blinken said, would seek to cooperate with China when they could, but that Washington would not back down on enforcing its interests and democratic values. “I said that the United States relationship with China will be competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, adversarial where it must be.”

Yi and Jiechi rebuffed the US officials. In a display of China’s growing power and confidence in its position on the global stage, Yi asserted that China would not tolerate criticism from the US over how it handles issues considered to be “internal affairs”. In recent years, Washington has rebuked Beijing for its treatment of Uyghurs and other minorities in China’s northwestern region Xinjiang; its crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong; its aggressive behavior in the South and East China Seas and with India; its threats towards Taiwan; trade practices; cyber-attacks; theft of intellectual property; and more.

“China certainly in the past has not and in the future will not accept the unwarranted accusations from the US side,” Yi said. “In the past several years, China’s legitimate rights and interests have come under outright suppression, plunging the China-U.S. relationship into a period of unprecedented difficulty.” Yi also reiterated China’s demands that the US cease “interfering in China’s internal affairs. This has been a longstanding issue and it should be changed. It is time for it to change.”

In his comments, Jiechi noted the shared responsibilities that the US and China have in ensuring “peace, stability and the development of the world, in areas such as COVID-19, restoring economic activities in the world and responding to climate change.” To achieve such ends, Jiechi said, the US and China need to drop hostilities. “There are many things that we can do together and where our interests converge. So what we need to do is to abandon the Cold War mentality and the zero-sum game approach.”

Under the Biden administration, the US has sought to approach China “from a position of strength.” Jiechi dismissed such tactics, stating that the US “was not even qualified to say such things even 20 years or 30 years back, because this is not the way to deal with the Chinese people. If the United States wants to deal properly with the Chinese side, then let’s follow the necessary protocols and do things the right way.” Proclaiming the greatness of both the Chinese and American people, Jiechi made a call for cooperation between the countries.

During the talks, Blinken highlighted China’s actions in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, its cyberattacks, and economic coercion against US allies and partners as issues of particular concern.

“Each of these actions threaten the rules-based order that maintains global stability,” Blinken said.

Sullivan noted that US allies and partners had raised similar concerns. Reflecting Washington’s commitment to protecting not only the US but also allies and partners, the national security advisor said “that our overriding priority on the United States side is to ensure that our approach in the world and our approach to China benefits the American people and protects the interests of our allies and partners.”

By the end of the talks, not much progress had been made, but the two sides did agree to establish a joint working group on climate change. China also noted arrangements for COVID-19 vaccinations for diplomats and consular staff, diplomatic exchanges, and possible amendments to travel and visa policies.

Blinken described the talks as “candid” while noting China’s “defensive response”. Jiechi described the talks as “direct, frank and constructive”, but asserted that China would “safeguard our national sovereignty”. Yi expressed a desire to cooperate while respecting “each other’s core interests. On this common ground, China is willing to adopt an opening attitude to the United States.”

Reflecting the nuanced path that US-China relations will take, Sullivan emphasized that Washington will seek to work with Beijing on some issues while still standing up for values like human rights and freedom.

“We do not seek conflict but we welcome stiff competition and we will always stand up for our principles for our people and for our friends,” Sullivan said.

An Indo-Pacific NATO?

The talks in Anchorage were preceded by high-level meetings in Japan and South Korea that were intended to show Washington’s commitment to the region.

Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stopped first in Tokyo, where they met with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi. During talks, the countries’ top diplomats and defense officials condemned China’s behavior in the region and affirmed the importance of their alliance.

The two sides also issued a joint statement accusing China of violating the international order through its activities in the East China Sea. The statement asserted Japan’s right to the Senkaku Islands, which Japan administers but China claims. It also called for stability along the Taiwan Strait as concerns grow that China may use military force to seize the self-governing island of Taiwan.

At the start of the meeting, Kishi warned of an “increasingly tense security environment” in the region. Blinken and Austin sought to reassure Japan and other regional allies by asserting that the US “will push back when necessary when China uses coercion or aggression to try to get its way,” and that Washington’s goal “is to make sure that we maintain a competitive edge over China or anyone else that would want to threaten us or our alliance.”

Following the meeting in Tokyo, Blinken and Austin headed for Seoul, where they met with their South Korean counterparts to address regional issues. While concerns over North Korea took precedence, Blinken used the meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Defense Minister Suh Wook to again condemn China for its “aggressive and authoritarian behavior.” The need to cooperate with China on some issues was also seen as Blinken simultaneously called on Beijing to use its influence to push North Korea to denuclearize.

After the East Asia meetings, Blinken flew to Anchorage while Austin continued west to New Delhi, where he met with India’s leading officials on March 19. During talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and national security advisor Ajit Doval, Austin praised India for its leadership role in the Indo-Pacific and its “growing engagement with like-minded partners across the region to promote shared goals.”

After talks the next day with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Austin announced that the US and India would strengthen their defense ties through “regional security cooperation and military to military interactions and defense trade.”

Relations between India and China have gone downhill since 20 Indian troops were killed last year in a physical clash with Chinese troops along their disputed border in the Himalayas. The confrontation brought India into a circle of nations increasingly concerned about how a rising China will act as it further pursues its interests in the region.

Before the Tokyo meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian called on the US to “stop interfering in China’s internal affairs” and instead cooperate and resolve differences.

Lijian accused “certain countries” of “exagerat(ing) and hyp(ing) up the so-called ‘China threat’ to sow discord among regional countries, especially to disrupt their relations with China. However, their actions, running counter to the trend of the times of peace, development and cooperation and the common aspirations of the countries and peoples in the region, will not be welcomed or succeed.”

Washington’s approach toward confronting China puts a strong emphasis on working with allies and partners. In doing so, however, the US must face an uncomfortable truth: Countries in the region must balance security concerns with deep economic ties with China. Furthermore, partners like India do not hold values like democracy and human rights in the same regard that the US does.

While Kishi, Japan’s defense minister, warned that Japan would “absolutely not accept” increased aggression by Beijing, Motegi avoided mentioning China directly as he praised the US-Japan alliance for ensuring “peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.” South Korean officials also remained largely mute on China as they discussed North Korea and other concerns with Blinken and Austin. And India - with who Austin promised to strengthen defense ties - is going against the US by moving forward with acquiring a controversial Russian-made air defense system.

While China may accuse the US of forging an anti-China bloc, the reality of those security ties is more complicated. These nations see China as a common challenge, but they also hold diverging interests and their own nuanced relations with Beijing. Managing this reality will be critical for both the US and China in the years ahead.