The New Cold War? How the US is forming a global coalition against China

Speaking outside the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a plea to the international community: The Chinese people and democracies around the world must stand up to and change the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Citing a plethora of threats posed by the communist party governing China, Pompeo framed the path ahead as the defining challenge of the 21st century, an existential threat requiring a Cold War like struggle between liberal democracy and Marxist-Leninist ideology.

“We, the freedom-loving nations of the world, must induce China to change, just as President Nixon wanted,” Pompeo said. “We must induce China to change in more creative and assertive ways, because Beijing’s actions threaten our people and our prosperity.”

The only way for democracy to prevail, Pompeo stated, was through a unified approach. Partners and allies must come together to resist a government whose beliefs and ideals fundamentally oppose their own in every conceivable way. It was a message that has been echoed by officials throughout the US government, from diplomats to military leaders. While it was one of the most clear indications yet of just how important the US perceives partnership to be for countering China, American actions have already leaned toward cooperation. From the UK in the West to Japan in the East, Washington has been working closely with its allies and partners in its so-called great power competition with China.

What the US and its allies and partners are doing

In his call for democracies to confront the CCP, Pompeo said that nations needed to be united in their approach. “We have to draw common lines in the sand that cannot be washed away by the CCP’s bargains or their blandishments,” he said, citing Washington’s recent stance on the South China Sea as an example.

With increased military activity spurred by territorial disputes, the South China Sea has been the center point of much of the recent US-China competition. Earlier this month, the United States formally announced that it viewed most of China’s vast controversial claims to the sea as illegitimate. In doing so, the US sided with regional allies and partners who have long had territorial disputes with China. These countries have also faced aggressive actions from Chinese vessels seemingly in an attempt to coerce and intimidate them from pushing their territorial claims and exploiting natural resources.

(Territorial claims in the South China Sea. China's claims to 80% of the sea overlap with those of Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Map Source: Voice of America)

During an annual summit in June, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) expressed concerns over such actions. Recent incidents include the collision between a Chinese coast guard ship and a Vietnamese fishing vessel and the encroachment of Malaysian waters by Chinese boats. At the conclusion of the summit, the bloc issued a statement supporting the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. That international law governs countries’ rights to waters and has been used by an international tribunal and countries like the US to argue that China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are illegitimate.

Throughout the Indo-Pacific, countries have also stepped up military cooperation, especially amongst members of the “Quad” coalition, which comprises the US, Japan, India, and Australia. Other than the US, Australia has taken some of the most visible steps toward confronting China. Last week, it joined Japan and the US in naval exercises in the Philippine Sea that were intended to show the countries’ commitment to a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”. That commitment entails protecting the rights of ships and aircraft to freely travel through waterways in the region and is one way in which countries are pushing back against attempts by China to assert its territorial claims.

(Source: Google Maps)

In June, Australia also announced a new defense strategy focused on the Indo-Pacific and countering China. In unveiling the new plan, Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned that Australia was facing threats and challenges not seen since the lead up to World War II. Over the next ten years, Australia plans to invest $270 billion in more troops, long-range missiles, cyber and space capabilities, an underwater surveillance system, and the ability for forces to deal with gray zone threats that fall short of open conflict while still challenging Australian interests.

On July 23, Australia also issued a statement regarding China's claims in the South China Sea that aligned with Washington’s position. In it, Australia rejected Chinese territorial claims that were inconsistent with international law and statements by China that its claims are accepted by other countries and justified on historical rights and maritime interests.

In the East China Sea, a group of uninhabited islands claimed by Japan and China have caused an uptick in tensions between Tokyo and Beijing. Known as the Senkakus by Japan, Japanese aircraft have been conducting daily surveillance missions to monitor Chinese aircraft flying near the islands, which China refers to as Diaoyu. Earlier this month, China reportedly demanded that Japanese fishing vessels stop “trespassing” in waters around the islands. Japan, which administers the islands, strongly rejected the demands. Chinese vessels have also increased patrols in the area. On July 4, two Chinese coast guard vessels sailed around the islands for more than 39 hours.

(The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are located in the East China Sea, only some 255 miles west of Okinawa. Picture source: Google Maps)

The coast guard movements and Chinese demands came shortly after the Japanese municipality of Ishigaki voted to rename the administrative area covering the Senkakus from “Tonoshiro” to “Tonoshiro Senkaku”. Viewing it as an attempt by Tokyo to solidify its claim to the islands, Beijing also demanded that Japan nullify the renaming, a move that Japan said was not possible. Shortly thereafter, China made a corresponding measure, naming three seabeds to include the word “Diaoyu”. Japan protested the action as illegitimate.

In its annual defense white paper published this month, Japan declared China to be a greater threat than North Korea. It noted efforts by China to “alter the status quo” in the South and East China Seas and spread disinformation about COVID-19.

India is another country whose shared opposition toward Beijing has grown, especially after its recent border clash with China that left 20 Indian troops dead. With its own interests in supporting a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, India is considering inviting Australia to join a large-scale naval exercise with the US and Japan. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun told the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations that Australia’s participation would be “hugely beneficial” to defending mutual interests. So far, India has not allowed Australia to participate in order to avoid giving the impression of the Quad alliance being a military pac aligned against China. But recent events have some wondering if India’s position will change.

Last week, India also joined the US in naval exercises in the Indian Ocean that coincided with the ones in the Philippine Sea with Japan and Australia. The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and accompanying US naval vessels linked up with four Indian naval ships near the Strait of Malacca. The two navies proceeded to conduct exercises such as air defense drills to improve interoperability and readinesses.

(Source: Google Maps)

During his comments to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Biegun said Washington’s policy for confronting China was based upon four pillars - “unity at home,” closer partnership with allies and partners, military deterrence, and “a powerful economic alternative to China.” Out of those four, he said partnership was crucial.

“I actually think if we get all four of these right, we produce the best outcome with China as well,” Biegun said. “Because if China sees that that's how the world is aligned against its efforts, it will have the best incentive to change its behavior in a peaceful manner, as well.”

Biegun also said that the US was strengthening its ties with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN.

Another example of growing international cooperation was a multinational partnership formed in June to push back against China. Titled the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, the pac is composed of officials from multiple countries with the aim of “working towards reform on how democratic countries approach China.” In a tweet announcing the launch of IPAC, British Conservative lawmaker Iain Duncan Smith said that it was time “for democratic countries to unite in a common defence of our shared values.”

Technology is another area that the US has had some success in. Earlier this month, the UK reversed its decision to allow Huawei to help develop its upcoming 5G network. Sanctions imposed on Huawei by the US in May that would limit its ability to manufacture and obtain semiconductor chips using American-technology apparently contributed to the UK’s decision. The sanctions prohibit companies from selling components to Huawei that the company needs to produce 5G technology. After a security review, the National Security Council ordered British companies to phase Huawei out by 2027. Earlier this year, the UK government had agreed to allow Huawei a limited role in the creation of its 5G network.

India has also banned Chinese owned apps such as TikTok, although that move had more to do with tensions along its Himalayan border with China than US pressure.

Why the US views China as a threat

Last month, National Security Advisor Robert C. O'Brien pointed to the ideological differences between the US and China as being the primary source of tensions as he promised to stand up to the CCP and what he called communist ideals.

"We will stay true to our principles - especially freedom of speech - which stand in stark contrast to the Marxist-Leninist ideology embraced by the CCP," O'Brien said.

During his speech last week, Pompeo echoed O'Brien's statement.

“America can no longer ignore the fundamental political and ideological differences between our countries, just as the CCP has never ignored them,” Pompeo said.

The library Pompeo spoke at provided a symbolic backdrop. Nearly five decades ago, President Richard Nixon opened the door to China. Through a strategy of engaging with China - through trade, investment, people-to-people interactions - he and others hoped that the country would become an East Asian mirror of the US, a nation with democratic ideals and freedoms. But during his remarks, Pompeo asserted that the opposite had happened. China hadn’t become a democracy, he said. Instead, it had taken advantage of the US and others nations and bit “the international hands that were feeding it.”

“We must admit a hard truth that should guide us in the years and decades to come,” Pompeo said, “that if we want to have a free 21st century, and not the Chinese century of which (President) Xi Jinping dreams, the old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won’t get it done. We must not continue it and we must not return to it.”

As he spoke, Pompeo outlined areas in which China threatened American interests: the theft of intellectual property and trade secrets, human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and disdain for international law evident by its actions in the East and South China Seas.

Intellectual Property and Trade Theft

Earlier this month, FBI Director Christopher Way said that Chinese espionage and economic theft are the “greatest long-term threat to our nation’s information and intellectual property”. When it came to stealing research and technology, Way said that China was targeting an array of sectors, “everything from military equipment to wind turbines to rice and corn seeds,” in an attempt to gain an upper technological-hand over the US. One way China does that, Way said, is through programs like its Thousand Talents Program, in which the Chinese government attempts to persuade individuals working in American institutions and companies to secretly bring research and technology back to China.

Way cited multiple cases of individuals involved in the program. In one, a Chinese citizen living in the US stole $1 billion in trade secrets from an American petroleum company. Other instances of intellectual property theft included information regarding naval technology and wireless devices. By acquiring leading edge technology and research that Chinese firms and companies then adopt for their own use, Pompeo said “millions of jobs” had been lost in the US.

“These cases were among more than a thousand investigations the FBI has into China’s actual and attempted theft of American technology - which is to say nothing of over a thousand more ongoing counterintelligence investigations of other kinds related to China,” Way said.

Not all cases involved Chinese nationals working in the US, and Way was careful to note that the threat posed to the US stemmed from the CCP and not Chinese citizens or Chinese Americans. One instance of a non-Chinese citizen working for China involved Dr. Charles Lieber, an American citizen and the chairman of the chemistry and chemical biology department at Harvard University. The FBI indicted Lieber in June for making false statements about his involvement with the Thousand Talents Program. Lieber allegedly hid his role as a “Strategic Scientist” at the Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) and the fact that the Chinese government was paying him a $50,000 monthly stipend, $150,000 in living expenditures, and $1.5 million to create a laboratory at WUT.

Way also noted actions by China to steal the personal data of Americans, most notably the hacking of the credit reporting agency Equifax in 2017, in which the information of 150 million Americans was stolen. China’s reason for doing so, Way said, was to develop its artificial intelligence tools and identify potential targets for intelligence gathering.

Human Rights Abuses

Over the past few years, China has conducted what the US says is a “campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, forced labor and high-technology surveillance” against Turkic Uighurs and other minorities in the northwest region of Xinjiang. China denies such accusations, saying the purpose of the campaign is to eradicate terrorism and that it provides vocational skills and job opportunities.

In Hong Kong, the Chinese government recently imposed a new law intended to protect national security but which critics say infringes upon the city’s distinct liberties and autonomy. The law came after large-scale protests in the city last year that saw strong opposition to the mainland government and calls for support from the US.

In response to Hong Kong and Xinjiang, the US has accused China of violating human rights and has imposed sanctions, export restrictions, and travel bans on Chinese officials.

International Law and the South China Sea

The South China Sea has been a primary cause for tension between the US and China. While only recently announcing its official stance, the US has long opposed China’s sweeping claims to the sea.

Despite a ruling by an international tribunal in 2016 that China's claims are illegitimate, China continues efforts to enforce and protect what it says is its sovereign territory. These efforts include the creation and militarization of artificial islands and naval operations. Over the past several years, China has built military bases and facilities on pre-existing or artificially expanded islands, reefs, and other maritime features in the South China Sea. These military installations include airfields, ports, radar, and missile defense systems, all which allow China to project its military power. China also regularly sends official and unofficial - sometimes referred to as its “maritime militia” - vessels into disputed waters to harass, intimidate, and sometimes attack foreign ships.

The Chinese government has pushed back against these criticisms. China often says that its rise is peaceful, beneficial to the international community, and not intended to challenge the US. Supporters say that Washington’s reaction to China is an attempt to divert focus from its own governmental shortcomings by highlighting flaws in other countries instead. The People’s Daily, a newspaper owned by the CCP, accused Pompeo of having a “Cold War mentality, representing the typical lies recently fabricated by high-ranking U.S. officials about China.” The paper noted differences between the US and China, but pointed to historical instances in which both countries agreed to respect the interests of each other and work together.

Still, with tensions mounting between the two powers, some Chinese officials have pushed for negotiations to resolve differences. Powerful American business figures and representatives with financial interests in China have also urged Washington to take a less aggressive approach toward Beijing.

But with a deepening mistrust of China growing among governments, it seems unlikely that such voices will prevail. With Pompeo’s speech, the path forward for the US and its allies seems clear - a unified coalition of nations opposed to China. Beijing, of course, will not be passive in its response, and the cooperation called for by Washington isn't guaranteed. Nonetheless, if pressure from multiple directions does come its way, Beijing will likely double down on its interests. Descriptions of the US-China rivalry being a new Cold War may seem hyperbole, but both sides are laying the grounds for a competition that looks posed to get worse before it gets better.