Is China preparing to invade Taiwan?

Amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, the South China Morning Post published an article on October 18 suggesting that China had moved closer to launching a military invasion of Taiwan. Lending credibility to the possibility was a speech made by President Xi Jinping a few days earlier, in which he ordered the Chinese Marine Corps to increase combat readiness. These events followed other diplomatic and military moves that have worsened US-China relations and increased pressure on Taiwan.

But while the situation might appear grim, experts say that an intentional war between the parties is unlikely. However, given the increase in military operations in the region, the possibility exists for one side to miscalculate the actions of the other and instigate an unintentional conflict. The latest tensions across the Taiwan Strait also come just weeks before important political events for Washington and Beijing - the presidential election in the US, and the Fifth Plenum of the Nineteenth Communist Party Congress, at which China’s 14th five year plan, which lays out important national development goals, is expected to be unrolled.

What China’s president said to the PLANMC

During a tour of Guangdong province last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a stop at the People’s Liberation Army Navy Marine Corps (PLANMC) headquarters in Chaozhou. He met with top officials and hailed the PLANMC as an “elite combat force for amphibious operations… (that) shoulders the important duties of safeguarding the country's sovereignty security, territorial integrity, maritime interests, and overseas interests,” state media reported. Xi also called for improvements to training, force design, and doctrine in order to “to forge a powerful troop, with battlewise soldiers, which is integrated and versatile in operation, swift in response, and capable of fighting under multi-dimensional conditions.”

China has a number of overseas interests that the PLANMC is entrusted with protecting. These include spearheading a potential military invasion of Taiwan, amphibious landings on contested maritime features in the South or East China Sea, security at its overseas base in Djibouti, or anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. Other overseas interests include citizens, infrastructure and trade routes. Further reflecting China’s ambition to protect its overseas interests were comments in its 2019 National Defense White Paper stating that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is “speeding up the transition of its tasks from defense on the near seas to protection missions on the far seas, and improving its capabilities for strategic deterrence and counterattack, maritime maneuver operations, maritime joint operations, comprehensive defense, and integrated support, so as to build a strong and modernized naval force.”

The PLANMC’s force structure is still in development. In 2017, amid military wide reforms, the PLANMC underwent reorganization and establishment. Part of the reforms put in place at the time included expanding the force from 20,000 personnel to 100,000. Since then, state media reported that the PLANMC has undergone intense training that has strengthened readiness and expanded capabilities. Cited exercises include “simulated helicopter landings on a pirate ship in the South China Sea, fast boat landings on a hijacked ship in the Gulf of Aden, tropical island seizing missions with amphibious assault vehicles, infiltration missions in extremely cold grasslands, shooting training in Djibouti and competing in the International Army Games 2019 in Russia.”

A US Department of Defense report on China’s military this year, however, painted a less rosy picture of the PLANMC. The intelligence report stated that the PLANMC’s expansion and reforms had gone slower than expected and that it was unlikely to reach objectives set for this year. It also noted that of the PLANMC’s eight brigades - six combat brigades, one special forces brigade, and an aviation (helicopter) brigade - only the two original combat brigades are mission ready. Furthermore, a 2019 report by the Jamestown Foundation estimated that the force had only raised its personnel numbers to 40,000 - far short of the desired 100,000. Despite these setbacks, however, the DoD report made clear that the PLANMC is still on track to becoming an expeditionary force. “Ultimately, the PLANMC will be capable of operating from the land, sea, and air to support the PLA’s global operations, but this goal will likely not be realized by China’s stated goal to complete PLA reforms by 2020,” the report said.

Looking beyond the initial knee jerk reaction of Xi’s speech, the Chinese leader’s comments seemed to reflect dissatisfaction with the progress of PLANMC reforms rather than hidden plans for an imminent invasion of Taiwan. This fits with orders from Xi to clarify the “strategic design” of the Marine Corps to ensure that it matches “the country's strategies of national development, security and military, strategic arrangements of modernized national defense and military, as well as the construction of the joint operations systems and transformation of the navy.” Xi’s visit to the PLANMC headquarters also comes just weeks before China is set to release its 14th Five-Year-Plan, which sets important national development goals. The Global Times cited Chinese military analysts as saying that “the inspection to the corps sent a signal that China will speed up its preparation for any potential military conflict in the water areas and islands in regions like the Taiwan Straits, South and East China Seas, as well as the regions of significant overseas interests, as the strategic pressure from foreign hostile forces against China is increasing.”

But while China might not have near-term plans for an attack on Taiwan, it remains willing to use military force as a last resort to prevent Taiwan from gaining formal independence. Furthermore, tensions between China and Taiwan and the US continue to grow. Coupled with increased military operations in the region, experts and officials worry about the potential for a strategic miscalculation by one side to lead to an unintended conflict.

Why experts fear an unintended conflict could occur

On October 18, the South China Morning Post reported that China had expanded military bases along its southeast coast and deployed one of its most advanced ballistic missiles to the area in possible preparation for an invasion of Taiwan. The report was based on named and unnamed sources and analyses of satellite imagery.

The report suggests that China has taken steps to better prepare forces, specifically its Rocket Force, for a military attack on Taiwan. It also came on the head of Chinese island invasion exercises, tentative US arms sales to Taiwan, espionage cases, and relentless incursion of Chinese aircraft near Taiwan’s borders.

China’s military exercises, which began on October 10, came at a specially sensitive time, as Taiwan celebrated a national holiday commemorating the anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China. Not to be confused with the People’s Republic of China - which is the official name of mainland China given by the government in Beijing - the Republic of China was formed in 1911 and ruled in mainland China until its government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after suffering a defeat to communist rebels. Since then, both have ruled as distinct entities - the People’s Republic of China in what many today recognize to be China, and the Republic of China on the island known as Taiwan. A distinct Taiwanese identity has spawned over the years, but China vows to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.

(Click here to learn more about China-Taiwan history and relations.)

In an address delivered on the national holiday, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen called for “meaningful dialogue” with China on the condition that it worked to improve bilateral relations. Yet as Taiwanese celebrated the holiday, the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), carried out an island invasion exercise along China’s south and southeast coastline.

“This exercise, with the effective integration of multiple new combat forces, increased the PLA’s capabilities in joint landings and three-dimensaional assaults,” Chinese state media reported. A retired major general, Wang Zaixi, described the exercises as “unprecedented”.

“Until today, the possibility of peaceful reunification was slim,” Wang was quoted as saying. “The live-fire military exercises showed it is just one step away to actual combat.”

That same day, China announced that a similar exercise would take place off the coast of Fujian beginning October 13. In addition to exercises intended to demonstrate capabilities and deter Taiwan from moving forward with efforts to formalize independence, China has also kept up pressure on Taiwan through frequent incursions into its air defense zone. Earlier this month, Taiwan’s defense minister said that the military had spent eight percent of the defense budget responding to intruding Chinese aircraft. At that time, the PLA had conducted 1,710 air sorties and 1,029 maritime incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Of those, 217 sorties had entered the southwest corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ and 49 crossed the median line that unofficially separates Taiwan and China. Taiwan responded to the incursions with roughly 3,000 of its own sorties to dispel and track Chinese aircraft. In two instances, Chinese pilots responded to Taiwanese warnings by shouting that “there is no median line” and that they were conducting “routine training”. In another instance, Chinese aircraft came within 37 nautical miles of Taiwan. On October 15, Hong Kong blocked a Taiwanese military aircraft from flying to islands claimed by China and Taiwan but governed by Taipei.

(The Pratas/Dongsha Islands are claimed by China and Taiwan but administered by Taipei. On October 15, Hong Kong prevented a Taiwanese military plane from landing at an airstrip on the island. Image source: Google Maps)

Such activities have pushed Taiwan and the US closer. Under congressional law, Washington is obligated to provide for Taiwan’s security. One way it does this is through arms sales. Last week, media reports emerged that the US was considering or reviewing sales of MQ-9 Reaper Drones, anti-ship missiles, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), precision strike missiles, and F-16 sensor pods to Taiwan. If approved, the tentative deals would be the latest in a series of others made under US President Donald Trump. Beijing threatened a “legitimate and necessary” response and called upon the US to cancel the deals and cut military ties with Taiwan.

If the deals move forward, they would also help fulfill calls from US officials for Taiwan to increase its military budget and invest in more diverse weaponry to deter - and, if necessary, defend against - a Chinese invasion. Still, they would be far from enough to tilt the balance of power in Taiwan’s favor. In the event that China did invade, Taiwan would be heavily dependent on US support. During an event at the University of Nevada on October 14, US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien reiterated Washington’s ambiguous position on whether it would actually come to Taiwan’s aid.

The US further stirred Chinese frustrations on October 14 by sending a naval destroyer through the Taiwan Strait. Beijing accused the ship of violating Chinese sovereignty while the US said the transit was a routine movement in accordance with international law that demonstrated its “commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.” The US has stepped up such Freedom of Navigation Operations and other military activities this year as it pivots its national security focus toward countering Russia and China. During speeches on October 15, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper called for increased military spending and readiness in order to “deter and prevail in the high-end fight, while able to perform across the full spectrum of combat operations.” In order to meet challenges posed by China, Esper said that the US would increase training and exercises in the Indo-Pacific, continue to develop hypersonic weapons, and enlarge its maritime transport capacity.

(Image source: Google Maps)

During a stop in Malaysia on October 13, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticized Washington’s strategic realignment. He accused the US of attempting to forge an Indo-Pacific version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) through its Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Japan, India, and Australia. The security pact, nicknamed the “Quad”, has seen greater cooperation and cohesion this year, thanks in no small part to rising tensions between its members and China. During a meeting between the Quad’s foreign ministers in Tokyo earlier this month, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presented the pact as a force to counter China. Wang accused it of posing a “big underlying security risk.”

“If it is forced forward, it will wind back the clock of history,” he said.

With the Quad working closer together through military exercises and FONOPs in the region, Wang pushed forward efforts to create a code of conduct between China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to govern disputes and activities in the South China Sea and remove “external disruptions”.

Conclusion

While the security situation in the Indo-Pacific appears to be becoming unstable, the chances for an intentional military conflict between powers remain slim. Xi’s comments last week weren’t the first time he ordered the PLA to improve its readiness and training. At the start of 2018, he delivered a similar message to troops at a ceremony. For the time being, China seems focused on domestic development, a desire reflected by comments made in Shenzhen at the end of his Guangdong tour last week. National security is vital to protecting Chinese interests and enabling the country to achieve “national rejuvenation” amid “a period of turbulence and transformations”.

Still, the growing tensions between China and the US and its partners and allies do not lend themselves to peace and stability. The chances for one side to misjudge the intentions or actions of the others and initiate a shooting match grows in step with rising hostilities. All sides are in something of a tit-for-tat situation where acts perceived as aggressive by one side push it to perform acts also perceived as aggressive by the other.

As the situation currently stands, greater hostility and instability seems the likely outcome. How countries manage this will determine whether or not the unthinkable becomes real.