Undeterred: North Korea continues the development of its missile program

Artwork by Hunter Williamson

Image credit: US Department of State; Ankit Panda on Twitter

At a nighttime military parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the ruling communist Workers’ Party last weekend, North Korea continued its age-old tradition of showcasing new weaponry. Amid the columns of marching troops and armored vehicles striding through Kim Il-Sung Square in the capital city Pyongyang were, most notably, two new ballistic missiles.

One appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) larger than any other in North Korea’s arsenal. The other, a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). While analyses of the missiles’ capabilities were limited, experts say that the larger size of the ICBM suggests that it can deliver a larger payload, or even multiple warheads. Analysis of the SLBM was more limited, but it, too, is believed to be capable of traveling farther and delivering a more destructive payload.

Why it matters

By displaying new ballistic missiles, North Korea showed its resolve to further develop its missile capabilities despite US demands for it to denuclearize and domestic hardships caused by natural disasters, COVID-19, and sanctions. During a speech at the parade, which occurred the night of October 9 into the following morning, North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un framed the missile and nuclear program as intended for self defense.

“If any force harms the safety of our nation, we will fully mobilize the strongest offensive might in a preemptive manner to punish them,” Kim said.

The leader’s speech lacked the usual anti-US and South Korea rhetoric laced in his other patriotic messages. Instead of threats of missile attacks and name calling, Kim wished good health to people worldwide in the face of COVID-19 and expressed a desire to repair bilateral ties with South Korea after the threat posed by the pandemic is over.

Pyongyang’s missile program is important because it could allow North Korea to not only strike American allies like South Korea or Japan with a nuclear missile, but potentially the continental US as well. Still, two experts noted that the “the rationale for such a very large ICBM is unclear and the new SLBM would only add marginally at best to the already sizable regional threat from North Korea’s land-based missiles.”

What are the missiles’ capabilities?

The ICBM, called the Hwasong-16 by some analysts, appeared on an 11 axle vehicle, two more than the one used for the missile’s predecessor, the Hwasong-15. The missile’s greater length and diameter appears to make it the largest ICBM in the world and suggests that it can travel farther and carry a heavier payload, or even multiple warheads.

When North Korea tested the Hwasong-15 in 2017, it claimed that the missile could strike any target in the continental US. Some experts are skeptical about that claim, and it is unclear if Pyongyang possesses the technology needed for a nuclear warhead to reenter the atmosphere and hit its target. On November 30, 2017, South Korean President Moon Jae-In told US President Donald Trump in a phone call that it was not proven that the North could guide a warhead to its target either. Nonetheless, in furthering its missile program, North Korea has shown the ability to domestically produce the parts and technology needed to create a successful ICBM.

Less information is known about the SLBM featured at the parade. Analysts believe that it also can likely travel farther and carry a larger payload than its predecessors. However, it is unlikely that the missile could strike US targets in Guam, Hawaii or the West Coast without a submarine approaching within vulnerable distances.

The takeaway

Tensions between the US and North Korea are cooler than they've been before, but some experts ascribed this relative calm to a strategy by Pyongyang to wait out the American presidential election results before moving forward with a course of action.

Shortly before a breakthrough summit between Trump and Kim in 2018, North Korea paused its ICBM and nuclear weapons testing. During their meeting in Singapore, both leaders agreed to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” While tensions that had been rising cooled in the aftermath of the summit, disagreements over North Korea’s denuclearization and sanctions relief gridlocked negotiations. With talks at a stalemate, North Korea promised a “Christmas gift” for the US at the end of 2019. While that gift never appeared to materialize, progress seemed to backslide further when Kim warned that his country was no longer obliged to uphold its pause on weapons tests and promised to reveal a new kind of weapon. Several months later, North Korea destroyed a liaison office with South Korea in the town of Kaesong.

With the US presidential election just weeks away, analysts said that the missiles display was likely intended to be an unprovocative showcase of growing military capability to whoever wins the election. One expert said that by displaying, rather than testing, the new missile, North Korea was “waiting out the U.S. presidential election before starting another cycle of provocations and diplomacy.”

America’s primary adversary, China, also sent a letter to Kim expressing wishes to “defend, consolidate and develop” relations with North Korea. While Trump succeeded in stopping - at least temporarily - North Korea’s nuclear weapons tests, the country still possesses those weapons and continues to move forward with developing missiles that would enable it to strike the US. Where US-North Korea relations go next will likely be determined by the outcome of the American presidential election.