Security Challenges Erupt Across Indo-Pacific

A wave of incidents challenged security and stability in the Indo-Pacific last week. Along India and China’s disputed border, 20 Indian troops were killed after a violent physical altercation. On the Korean Peninsula, relations continued to deteriorate between Pyongyang and Seoul after North Korea blew up a joint liaison office near its border with South Korea. And off of China’s eastern shores, Chinese aircraft continued to violate Taiwanese airspace.

India

What

Amid a tense standoff between China and India over disputed border claims, 20 Indian troops - including a colonel - died after a violent physical clash between troops on the evening of June 15. China did not disclose any casualties, but Indian media claimed that several Chinese troops were also killed. While no shots were reportedly fired, troops did utilize hands, rocks, and spiked wooden clubs.

China claimed that the fight occurred after Indian troops launched an assault into Chinese territory. India said the incident was caused by China attempting to “unilaterally change the status quo.” Precise details from both sides have been scarce.

Where

The fatal altercation occurred in the remote Galwan Valley, an isolated area located high inside the Himalaya Mountains and along the disputed Line of Actual Control, a demarcation line created after a war between the two countries in 1962.

When

May - Physical altercations breakout after India finishes constructing a road through the Galwan Valley.

June - A fatal clash occurs between Chinese and Indian troops following military buildups by both sides.

Why

The current standoff isn’t new. China and India have long quarreled over territorial claims along their 2,100 mile-long border. In 1962, the countries engaged in a brief war over the dispute. Since then, both sides have continued to patrol the disputed LAC. Physical altercations are not uncommon and both sides will sometimes briefly take troops captive. Still, both sides have managed to restrain those incidents from escalating to more lethal military force.

China and India are nuclear powers and both have the largest populations of any other countries. While India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on multiple occasions, India remains wary of China and its growing might. The US and India are strategic partners, and the US has sought to strengthen ties with India as relations with China deteriorate.

The ongoing situation appears to be the product of an altercation in May that came after India finished constructing a road through the Galwan Valley to reach one of its air bases. That confrontation spiraled into more at several other points along the LAC and drew in reinforcements, with reports of Chinese troops digging in inside of Indian territory. Indian media at one point reported that as many as 10,000 Chinese troops had crossed the LAC. However, satellite imagery and open-source analysis suggests that those numbers are exaggerated. Nonetheless, both militaries do appear to have reinforced their positions on their respective sides of the border, with an estimated 1,000-1,500 troops on China’s side.

While the current situation is tense and details have been scarce, both sides have publicly stated their desire to reach a peaceful compromise. With dialogue between low- to high-level military officials failing to resolve the standoff, talks have risen to the government level. Many experts do not expect the ongoing dispute to result in another military conflict.

Korea Peninsula

What

Following a deterioration of relations between the two Koreas, North Korea on June 16 demolished a joint liaison office with South Korea inside the North Korean city of Kaesong. The office acted as a sort of de facto embassy for South Korea, a place from which to conduct diplomacy with its autocratic neighbor. Seoul promised to hold Pyongyang “accountable for all the repercussions of its act.”

Where

The demolished liaison office was located inside Kaesong, a North Korean city located along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas.

When

• June 8 - North Korea announces it will cut off communication with Seoul.

• June 16 - North Korea blows up joint liaison office used for talks with South Korea.

• June 17 - North Korea rejects offer by South Korea to resolve tensions and threatens to redeploy troops near DMZ.

• June 21 - North Korea announces it will send propaganda leaflets into the South after a similar campaign by defectors in the South.

Why

Last Tuesday’s demolition of a liaison office used by the two Koreas appeared to be the combustion of an accumulation of grievances: a perceived violation of peace agreements and a failure to produce any tangible benefits from two years of negotiations with the South and US.

After a tense standoff between the US and North Korea in 2017 with South Korea caught in the middle, Seoul worked with Washington in hopes of reaching a lasting peace on the peninsula. But despite initial hopes and breakthroughs in personal relations between leaders, talks and agreements have ultimately failed to bring any conclusive results. An armistice - rather than a truce - still exists between Pyongyang and Seoul, North Korea still retains its intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, and the sanctions that it wants lifted still remain in place.

The liaison office destroyed by the North had been the product of peace talks in 2018 that some had hoped would lead to increased dialogue and diplomatic relations between the Koreas. But that has not been the case, just as talks between Pyongyang and Washington, mediated by Seoul, have failed to move forward. The result, essentially, has been a stalemate on the Korean and US fronts that have frustrated North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

One factor that seemed to justify Kim’s frustration was a recent anti-government leaflet campaign launched into the North by defectors now living in the South. One of the agreements reached in 2018 was to cease such leaflet campaigns, which had been commonplace prior to then. North Korean defector groups inside of the South had regularly sent anti-government leaflets, along with other items like money and USB sticks containing news and shows, into the North via balloons and bottles. South Korea has rebuked such moves by defectors and recently announced intentions to outlaw such campaigns.

North Korea has responded to these frustrations with multiple threats and actions. In early June, Pyongyang announced it would cut all communication with Seoul, including import hotlines intended to prevent military conflict. Referring to South Korea as an enemy, the government declared that it had no need to meet face-to-face with its neighbor any longer. While notable in the context of other events, North Korea has previously turned off and then back on hotlines with the South.

A few weeks later, a day after the destruction of the liaison office, North Korea rebuked efforts by South Korea for special envoys to resolve tensions and threatened to redeploy troops to areas along the DMZ. On June 21, state media reported that North Korea would begin sending its own propaganda leaflets into the South, a move renounced by Seoul.

The cut to communication, the destruction of the liaison office, and threats of troop deployments on the DMZ along with a new propaganda campaign all promise to renew tensions on the peninsula. As relations between the Koreas continues to deteriorate, a path to lasting peace looks increasingly unlikely.

Taiwan Strait

What

For the second week in a row, China continued its incursion of Taiwanese airspace. Chinese aircraft crossed the unofficial median line in the Taiwan Strait separating the countries’ respective airspaces four times last week, prompting Taipei to scramble fighter jets in response.

Where

Chinese aircraft crossed the unofficial median line that separates China and Taiwan’s respective airspaces and flew toward the island state’s southwest.

When

• June 16 - Chinese J-10 fighter jet enters Taiwanese airspace.

• June 17 - Chinese J-10 and Y-8 propellor plane enter Taiwanese airspace.

• June 18 - Chinese J-10 and J-11 fighter jet enter Taiwanese airspace.

• June 19 - Chinese J-10 enters Taiwanese airspace

Why

Since June 9, China has reportedly sent aircraft into Taiwanese airspace a total of six times. The first incident occurred on June 9, shortly after a US transport plane flew over Taiwan while enroute to Thailand. Two days later, Taiwan reportedly conducted a missile defense test, after which China carried out several more airspace intrusions.

Unlike with its border stand off with India, the Chinese government has remained silent about its violation of Taiwanese airspace. In the past, it has said drills and exercises around the strait were routine training and part of efforts to protect its sovereignty.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China, though the island state broke away from the mainland in 1949 and has resisted reunification attempts. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s resolute commitment to protecting her country’s independence has alarmed China, which has left open the option of using military force to bring Taiwan back under its fold.

Though the US and Taiwan do not have official diplomatic relations, Washington has remained one of Taiwan’s strongest partners. A conflict between Taiwan and China could draw the US into the fight.

Experts say that the incursions are part of a broader Chinese gray zone strategy to intimidate Taiwan. Gray zone involves tactics that challenge a country’s interests without resorting to outright military confrontation. The moves are also seen as a signal to the US of China's commitment and ability to protect what it views as sovereign territory.

To learn more about the situation in Taiwan Strait, check out last week’s Indo-Pacific analysis.