What does the attack on an Iranian official mean for the Indo-Pacific?

By now, news of the US airstrikes that killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful military official, has shook the world. In response to the attack, Iran’s leadership vowed revenge. Theories, rumors, and speculations have run amok about what comes next. Yet despite being a Middle East incident, the ramifications of Soleimani’s death will be global.

For the Indo-Pacific, Soleimani’s death seems likely to affect US negotiations with North Korea. US officials say the strikes could make North Korea think twice about crossing any red lines set by Washington, while experts warn that it will reinforce Pyongyang's belief that its nuclear weapons are its main source of protection against the US. Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, may believe that giving those weapons up could send him down the same path of other world leaders who dismantled their weapons of mass destruction programs following foreign pressure, specifically former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who was killed by a Western-backed rebellion in 2011. The thinking goes that if Gaddafi and Hussein hadn’t given up their WMD programs, countries like the US may never have attempted to remove them from power. The airstrikes also came days after Tehran sent a New Year’s message of solidarity to Pyongyang, hoping to combine their efforts to oppose the US, and Kim warned of a new weapon and a possible end to a pause on nuclear weapons and long range missile tests.

China reacted to the news by calling on both sides, but especially the US, to use restraint. Beijing’s involvement beyond that, however, is likely to be limited. Nonetheless, the incident is expected to push Iran closer to China and Russia, two countries that have become Washington’s main adversaries in what it calls renewed great power competition. Iran recently conducted a naval exercise with Russia and China. Still, prospects for an all out conflict between the US and Iran to escalate into a third world war are unrealistic, though it could be regional and very bloody.

The wider effects for the Indo-Pacific wait to be seen. As Washington attempts to pivot more to the Indo-Pacific and draw down its military footprint in the Middle East, tensions with Iran threaten to draw more US resources into the region. Soleimani’s death could also raise the stakes with North Korea, who may feel emboldened to take a more aggressive posture toward the US. Ultimately, like the retaliation expected from Iran, the true consequences for the Indo-Pacific are yet to come.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: While Iran’s presence is strongest in the Middle East, some experts have suggested that Iran’s retaliation could occur outside of the region against soft targets. US service members should exercise extra caution and vigilance.)

Take a closer look

Iran vows retaliation

Iran’s leadership promised “severe revenge” against the US after losing its most powerful military commander. With proxy forces throughout the Middle East, concerns abound of a bloody regional conflict breaking out.

The attack is likely to affect US-NK relations

Soleimani’s death is likely to strengthen North Korea’s resolve to develop and obtain nuclear weapons, experts say. Some US officials hope Pyongyang will heed it as a warning not to cross red lines set by Washington. The attack on the Iranian general came days after Iran expressed hope that North Korea would join it in resisting US pressure.

Will a war with Iran start WWIII?

Hours after the attack, fear ensued over social media about the possibility of US-Iran war spiraling out of control. Some worried it could provoke WWIII. Those prospects are slim, with China and Russia unlikely to get involved. But such a conflict could prove utterly devastating for the Middle East.