The future of the Indo-Pacific

In a couple of days 2019 ends, but the issues that plagued it in the Indo-Pacific will continue on into the next year.

From greater rivalry between the US and China to uncertainty over the future of North Korea, the issues in the region became more focused this year as Washington moved forward in what some call a new era of great power competition with Beijing and Moscow. These issues, along with a host of others, promise to further define the region and US policy in the new year.

At the forefront are US-China relations, which worsened in 2019 over differences regarding trade, territory, and human rights. On trade, both sides have announced a phase-one agreement in the ongoing trade war. But while making some concessions, it’s still a long way from resolving the dispute. Regarding human rights, protests in Hong Kong and mass detention of minorities in Xinjiang drew US condemnation that further antagonized relations. And territorial disputes between China and several Southeast Asian states deepened the grey-zone style conflict in the South China Sea over sovereignty and rights.

Moving forward into 2020, Taiwan will also continue to be another sore point. This year the US strengthened its security ties with Taiwan, a strategic partner that Washington has promised to protect. Taiwan broke away from mainland China in 1949 after a civil war. Since then, China has sought to reintegrate the island. Taiwan has so far resisted, with its sitting president adamant about independence as she rebukes reunification proposals from Beijing. With presidential elections just around the corner, her government has accused Beijing of interfering and attempting to support her main opponent from the opposition party that favors closer relations with China. The accusations are part of a wider set of allegations that China is seeking to undermine Taiwan through infiltration and disinformation operations even as it leaves open the possibility of reunification through military force.

Meanwhile on the Korean peninsula, uncertainty looms over whether North Korea will resume testing nuclear weapons even after failing to deliver a promised “Christmas gift” to the US. While North Korea conducted a number of weapons tests in 2019, it upheld its pause on testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Since negotiations began last year, the US and North Korea have failed to reach an agreement over the dismantling of the North's nuclear weapons. Frustrated by the lack of progress, North Korea has suggested it may resume tests in an attempt to strengthen its demands for the lifting of sanctions that have hurt its economy.

While this year saw a greater refocusing on the Indo-Pacific, 2020 will further test Washington’s commitment to protecting its interests and those of its allies in the region. Its most powerful competitor, China, shows no signs of giving up ground. To the contrary, it too looks likely to continue pursuing its own goals regardless of foreign criticism. Its increasing military prowess will strengthen its ability to assert territorial claims and challenge US might when it comes to protecting partners like Taiwan. And North Korea will be another thorn in America’s side if it resumes nuclear weapons tests. As the world enters a new decade the so-called great power competition is just beginning, and its frontlines are in the Indo-Pacific.

Take a closer look

Where are US-China relations heading?

Relations between the US and China worsened this year with differences over issues like trade, territory, and human rights. Complicating matters further is the competition for power and influence, not only in the Indo-Pacific, but other regions as well. With differences like these, where is the relationship heading?

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