Stable Military Relations? The US and China hope for new future

Last Tuesday, the US and China relationship took a step in a different direction. During a video conference, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and his Chinese counterpart agreed to build more stable military ties. The agreement offers a possible path out of what some see as an inevitable military conflict sometime in the future, but a number of issues lay ahead that both sides will need to overcome if they want to make it work.

In the shadows of a long-running trade war, the US and China have engaged in a sort of grey zone conflict in the South China Sea, conducting one provocative military operation after another. For China’s part, it continues to militarize artificially built islands in the region, equipping them with radar systems, missile defense and attack systems, and airfields. It regularly sends military aircraft and ships through airspaces and waters claimed by neighbors, stating that it is protecting its interests and borders. On the other end, the US has also stepped up its military activities as it continues to shift its national security focus to the Indo-Pacific region.

The agreement between the US and China and other developments last week further highlighted the controversies in the region. Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, expressed concerns on November 7 about the possibility of China using military force to bring the island back under its control. The root of his fear lies in the slowing growth rate of China’s economy. He warned that China could resort to military action against Taiwan to relieve domestic pressure if the slowdown continues.

Whether such an action would be taken is unclear. The communist government in Beijing has threatened to use force to take back Taiwan, which broke away from the mainland in 1949 at the end of China’s civil war, but it has also expressed a desire to reunify through peaceful means. Currently, the US and Taiwan maintain friendly but unofficial ties that would require America to come to Taiwan’s defense if it were ever attacked by China.

As for China’s other southern neighbors, they too worry about Chinese military aggression. Vietnam last Wednesday said it could turn to legal action if negotiations with China over disputed waters failed to reach satisfactory conclusions. Like other nations in the region, Vietnam and China claim conflicting rights over waters in the South China Sea. And also like China, Vietnam has built military outposts at sea, albeit ones that are less robust and equipped. Relations soured further in July when China sent a ship into internationally recognized Vietnamese waters to conduct seismic surveys.

The territory dispute is one of the biggest sources of tension between Washington and Beijing. Late last month, a senior US official urged southeast asian nations to push back against China. He championed America’s policy of working with regional partners to enforce open waters for trade and the respect of nations’ rights. As the US and China now vow to stabilize military relations in the region, they’ll need to find a way to navigate this issue, along with that of Taiwan and a number of others as well. But doing so will be difficult, especially as Beijing holds firm to its positions on these controversial issues.

TAKE A CLOSER LOOK

The US and China vowed to stabilize military relations. Can it be done?

The US and China say they want to stabilize military relations amid growing tensions in the South China Sea. To do so, however, means overcoming a number of hurdles.

Taiwan foreign minister warns of possible Chinese military intervention

Taiwan’s foreign minister warned China could use military force to take the island to relieve domestic pressure if Beijing’s economic growth continues to slow. The US would be obligated to come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of such a conflict.

China reiterates positions on controversial issues

The US and China agreed to stabilize military relations, but Beijing didn’t back down from its positions on a number of controversial issues. It continues to oppose anti-government protests in Hong Kong while defending its treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang, its stance on Taiwan, and its territorial claims in the South China Sea.

China hopes to make progress in agreement to settle territorial dispute

Even as territorial disputes in the South China Sea continue, China is ever hopeful that it’ll reach an agreement with neighboring states to create an agreed upon code of conduct to govern the region. Southeast states like Vietnam and the Philippines regularly argue with China over claims to portions of the sea.