Security Threats Loom As ASEAN Looks To Economic Recovery

As Southeast Asian countries begin to look toward recovering from the harmful effects of COVID-19, leaders are also facing growing security concerns stemming from a rising China challenged by the US. At a virtual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on Friday, leaders discussed these concerns as they outlined a path forward for economic recovery.

Who

ASEAN

• Vietnam

• Philippines

• Indonesia

• Malaysia

• Thailand

• Singapore

• Cambodia

• Myanmar

• Laos

• Brunei

China

What

When leaders from Southeast Asian countries came together for a virtual summit on Friday to discuss regional issues, two topics were at the forefront: post-COVID recovery and security threats in the South China Sea.

On the recovery front, leaders addressed the economic impact of COVID-19 and ways that member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could work together to bounce back through regional recovery plans and opening of travel. They also stated that the pandemic has hampered negotiations to address regional security threats.

COVID-19 has crashed revenue brought in through tourism and exports, hurting countries such as Vietnam, which hosted the conference as chair of ASEAN. Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phac warned in his opening statement that the virus had swept away the economic growth enjoyed by many countries in recent years.

ASEAN leaders also expressed concerns about incidents continuing to unfold in the South China Sea that are challenging the security and interests of countries in the region. The statements appeared to be aimed at military actions taken by China and possibly the US that have heightened regional tensions. A day later, the bloc issued a statement endorsing a United Nations treaty defining countries’ rights over oceans that many saw as a rebuke of China.

Where

Several ASEAN members have long been involved in a dispute with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea. China claims most of the sea through its controversial Nine-Dash Line which, as shown above, overlaps with other countries' claims.

When

June 26 - Virtual ASEAN Summit

Why

ASEAN member states want to recover from the effects of COVID-19 and get their economies back on a path of growth. While they may be able to reach such objectives through partnership and cooperation, any growth will be limited relative without involvement from their neighbor China, an emerging superpower with increasingly significant economic and military capabilities .

As China continues its rise politically, economically, and militarily under President Xi Jinping, it increasingly attempts to enforce its territorial claims in the South China Sea. China claims most of the sea under its controversial Nine-Dash Line, which overlaps with the claims of other countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei. These competing territorial claims have led to what many ASEAN members see as provocative Chinese behavior, such as the recent collision of a Vietnamese fishing vessel and Chinese coast guard ship and reported encroachment of Malaysian waters by Chinese fishing boats backed by the Chinese coast guard. In April, China expanded its administrative rule over the Paracel and Spratly islands, two archipelagos within disputed waters. A draft statement from ASEAN leaders noted "land reclamations, recent developments and serious incidents" as areas of concern among members.

A day after the virtual summit, ASEAN issued a statement endorsing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The 1982 treaty defines countries’ rights to sovereignty and resource exploitation at sea. An international arbitration tribunal ruled in 2016 that China’s Nine-Dash Line is invalid under the UN treaty.

The US has responded to China’s growing power with a mix of alarm and competition. Viewing the government in Beijing as a threat to American ideals and interests, the US has pushed back against Chinese military actions in east and southeast Asia with its own operations and increased presence. The US has, for instance, stepped up the number of Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) it conducts in the South China Sea as a means of contesting what it views as excessive maritime claims. These FONOPs regularly pass by militarized artificial islands that China has constructed to enforce its territorial claims. Last week, the US sent military aircraft through the Bashi Channel and into the South China Sea six days in a row, reportedly as part of reconnaissance missions. The operations came as China continued to send aircraft toward Taiwan and Japan’s defense minister announced that his country had been scrambling fighter jets daily to ward off approaching Chinese warplanes.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, who has distanced himself from the US in favor of closer ties with China, warned ASEAN leaders against being pulled into the power competition between the two rivals while also stating the need for all nations to respect international rules that give “all countries – large or small – not just one voice, but an equal standing."

ASEAN members are stuck in a tight place. On one hand, they are alarmed by China’s militarization of islands and its aggressive behavior that Beijing defends as measures to protect its territorial sovereignty. On the other, states do not want to lose out on substantial Chinese investment that helps their countries grow. As China’s largest trading partner, this investment along with trade will be crucial for countries wishing to climb out of their economic slump, but they will still remain worried about China encroaching upon their waters. ASEAN has attempted to manage the South China Sea dispute through the creation of a Code of Conduct that would enforce rules for member states and China to follow. While the coronavirus has hampered negotiations, Duterte promised to speed up the finalization of the code.

On the economic recovery front, some leaders discussed the idea of travel bubbles between certain countries. A travel bubble refers to one country allowing travelers from another country that contained the coronavirus to enter theirs without undergoing quarantine. Business travel specifically was reportedly raised by three leaders. More broadly, leaders said member states would need to work together to develop a more elaborate strategy for restarting economic growth. But as seen already, the road to recovery for ASEAN will be one of difficulty and balance.