Philippines-US military agreement to live on

Two months before it was scheduled to take effect, the Philippines on June 1 suspended the termination of a military agreement with the US that allowed for troop rotations and exercises.

Citing “political and other developments in the region,” Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin declared in a diplomatic note to the US that the Philippines would suspend the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which allows for military exercises like Balikatan. Some analysts see the decision as a blow to China, who would have benefited from a downgrade in relations between the US and the Philippines. Nonetheless, another agreement, the Mutual Defense Treaty, would have remained in effect and required the US and the Philippines to come to each other’s aid in the event of a conflict.

The move in February to terminate the VFA came after the US revoked a visa for a political ally of President Rodrigo Duterte. The visa revocation, among other things, further impressed upon Duterte the belief that the US lacked respect for the sovereignty of his country. He also hoped to make his country more self-reliant in defense capabilities. Under the terms of the VFA, the termination was set to go into effect in August. Duterte’s decision met strong opposition at home and in the US, with critics saying that the agreement was crucial to Filipino security, especially in the face of China. Beijing is in an active dispute with the Philippines and several other countries over territorial claims in the South China Sea. China uses naval, coast guard, and fishing vessels to assert what it believes to be its historical rights to most of the sea by sailing ships into disputed areas. In addition, it has built up and militarized a number of islands and maritime structures that have enabled it to more effectively enforce its claims. Such moves have caused alarm in the Philippines and its neighbors.

The Philippines is seen as important to America’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific, which aims to work with allies and partners in countering China. Terminating the VFA would have had an adverse impact on that plan. Since becoming president in 2016, Duterte has sought to distance the Philippines from the US in favor of better relations with China in hopes of bringing in more investment. The suspension of the VFA termination also comes as the Philippines government moved forward with an anti-terrorism bill that critics say will threaten freedoms and toys with the possibility of imposing martial law. Human rights activists warn that the anti-terror bill - which must be signed by Duterte - with its broad definitions of terrorism could be abused by the government to crackdown on critics. On June 4, the United Nations released a scathing report of the human rights situation in the Philippines, claiming that at least 8,663 people have died in Duterte’s war on drugs. Government officials pushed back against such concerns and said that threats of martial law had merely been jokes.