Philippines terminates US military agreement: Despite VFA abrogation, Balikatan still slated to go

In a major blow for Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte last week followed up on threats to end a key military agreement with the US.

Angered by what he perceived as a lack of respect for his country’s sovereignty, Duterte on Feb 11 terminated the Visiting Forces Agreement, which allowed for US troops to rotate through the country and train with the Philippines military. But with the termination taking 180 day to come into effect, Philippines Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said exercises, such as Balikatan, slated before the VFA’s cessation will still occur as planned.

In the lead up to the termination, Filipino senators called for a review of the VFA, warning of possible economic and security implications if it was abrogated. While it seems that Duterte’s decision was a response to an accumulation of grievances, the revocation of a political ally’s US visa in January was the match that sparked the explosion. In almost the same breath that Duterte threatened to terminate the VFA he also spoke of a desire to build closer ties with two of Washington’s main adversaries: Russia and China. Duterte’s spokesman said the VFA termination enabled the Philippines to be more independent regarding its national defense and relations with other countries.

In recent years, China has increasingly sought to assert its controversial territorial claims in the South China Sea through the use of ships and fishing vessels, alarming not only the US but members of the Filipino government and military as well. The archipelago nation is in an ongoing dispute with China over claims to maritime features and waters off the western shores of the Philippines. In 2016, an international court ruled that China’s claims were illegitimate, but Duterte has not pressed the award. The VFA took effect in 1999 at a time of growing concern in the Philippines regarding China.

Meanwhile, Russia appears to be seeking to take advantage of the gap that will be left by a vacant US military presence. On Feb 12, a Russian official said his country was in communication with the Philippines to draft an agreement for the “legal basis” and “framework” of a military partnership.

Beyond the uncertainty it will cause to the US-Philippines alliance, the VFA termination is also likely to complicate Washington’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific, a region that has become its priority theater as it engages in so-called great power competition with Beijing and Moscow. The 2021 fiscal year budget unveiled on Feb 11 calls for $740 billion for national defense and specifically allocates $1.5 billion to the Indo-Pacific to ensure “that the region remains free, open, and independent of malign Chinese influence.”

Despite objections from his defense secretary, US President Donald Trump said he doesn’t mind the scrapping of the VFA. Accepting Duterte’s decision, the new Filipino defense chief said the Philippines could move forward without the US by strengthening military cooperation with other allies and partners, such as Australia and Japan. While some Filipino lawmakers are inquiring about the legality of the VFA termination, the question on many people’s minds now is how it will affect the broader security of the region.