Is this the end of Philippines-US military partnership?

Upset over the cancelation of a visa for his former police chief, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte on Friday said he is terminating an armed forces agreement with the US that allows for joint military exercises and humanitarian operations in the East Asian country.

The announcement came a day after Duterte threatened to revoke the 1999 agreement, known as the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), after his former chief of police, Sen Ronald dela Rosa, said on Wednesday that the US had terminated his visa. In addition, the Filipino president promised to block the entry of US senators who have supported Leila de Lima, a detained senator who has heavily criticized Duterte for his anti-drug campaign.

The US has not publicly responded to his comments and some have questioned whether the threat is simply a bluff to pressure Washington into reconsidering a visa for Dela Rosa. While en route to Washington for “unrelated matters,” Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr instructed the defense secretary to begin terminating the VFA.

While Dela Rosa said the reason for his visa cancelation was not given, he suggested that it may have been for alleged extrajudicial killings that occurred while he was police chief during Duterte’s ongoing drug crackdown that has so far left more than 5,000 people dead.

The brutality of the campaign has alarmed western governments and human rights advocates, leading to complaints that have antagonized Duterte. In the announcement on Friday, his spokesman said the decision was the result of an “accumulation of many factors and considerations.”

Since taking office in 2016, Duterte has sought closer ties with China, even as the countries argue over territorial claims in the South China Sea. On Saturday, he expressed hopes for friendlier relations with Beijing as China celebrated its Lunar New Year. In an interview with Russian media on Friday, Duterte announced the purchase of 12 military cargo helicopters from Russia. Before concerns were raised about Duterte’s heavy handed drug war, the US was the primary supplier of weapons to the Philippines. Since then, Russia has offered to fill the gap as it becomes the world’s second largest arms producer, with a sizable market in South East Asia.

In addition to the helicopters purchase, Duterte accused the US of not respecting the Philippines' sovereignty, citing it as the reason for why he is seeking closer relations with Russia and China. He also criticized Washington for “always antagonizing the Chinese.”

Whether Duterte goes through with the VFA termination process waits to be seen. But if he does, it could have strategic ramifications for the US, especially as the Philippines seeks closer ties with two of Washington’s top adversaries. Doing so would further shift tides in the great power struggle for influence and power playing out between the US and China in the region. As for US service members, it would likely mean the end of military exercises such as the upcoming Balikatan exercise.