Is the Korean peninsula about to go hot again?

The year may be close to an end, but issues in the Korean peninsula aren’t. An important intelligence sharing pact between Japan and South Korea will likely expire Saturday, and North Korea recently made bold statements regarding its right to self defense.

In the southern half of the peninsula, Seoul remains grounded in its refusal to renew a military intelligence sharing pact with Japan. At the same time, the US is demanding that South Korea increase its share of costs for supporting US troops stationed in the country. And North Korea complicated matters even further last week by proclaiming its right to self defense in a statement condemning an upcoming military exercise between the US and South Korea.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper juggled these three issues during a visit to the South Korean capital on Nov 15. In a meeting in Seoul, Esper again pressed his South Korean counterpart to renew the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Japan. But that call, like the ones before it, produced fruitless results, with South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong Doo reiterating his country’s position to only consider renewing GSOMIA if Japan first removes its tariffs on South Korean products. The US worries that the collapse of GSOMIA, which allows Japan and South Korea to share intelligence about threats in the region, will benefit adversaries like China and North Korea.

Complications over its renewal began this summer with a revival of disputes about issues stemming from when Japan occupied South Korea in the early to mid 1900s. Strong public resentment toward Japan remains in South Korea to this day, and despite decades of arguing, both sides have never fully resolved the matter.

Meanwhile regarding cost sharing, Esper repeated calls by US President Donald Trump for South Korea to increase the amount of money it spends on the military alliance to $5 billion. South Korea currently pays just under $1 billion. Jeong gave a vague response, agreeing that costs should be fair without saying anything more specific.

As for North Korea, Esper suggested the possibility of adjusting the scale of military exercises with South Korea to assist diplomatic talks between Washington and Pyongyang. While tensions between the countries have eased since their peak in 2017, when nuclear war seemed imminent, North Korea continues to test short range missiles and on Thursday stated its right to self defense in response to an upcoming US-South Korean aerial exercise. It has also expressed discontent about stalled nuclear negotiations. Experts worry that efforts to denuclearize North Korea could collapse leading the country to resume its tests and development of nuclear weapons.

As the US continues to shift its military focus to the Indo-Pacifc, the Korean peninsula remains a key area of concern. With the end of GSOMIA imminent and the collapse of nuclear talks with North Korea increasingly likely, the challenges facing the US continue to grow. Moreso, they add to the difficulty of containing a rising China and deterring a hostile North Korea, threatening US influence in the region and the safety of its allies and partners.

TAKE A CLOSER LOOK

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The US is asking South Korea to renew its military intelligence sharing agreement with Japan before it expires on November 23, but disputes between Seoul and Tokyo means it’s unlikely that they will.

US SecDef suggests changes to military exercises to help with diplomatic outreach to North Korea

With talks between the US and North Korea remaining stalled, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper suggested the possibility of adjusting the scale of military exercises with South Korea as a means to aid diplomatic efforts.

US calls for South Korea to pay more for military alliance

The US is demanding that South Korea pay more for their military alliance. Specifically, US President Donald Trump is calling on Seoul to increase the amount it spends to support US troops stationed in the country to $5 billion, more than five times the amount it currently pays.

Primers on Japanese-South Korean relations

Relations between South Korea and Japan are messy, to say the least. These two stories (here and here) explain why and the reason that the US views their cooperation as so important.